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A Critique to UN Population Projection

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

One of the most important ingredients in making population is the assumptions on what will happen to the fertility, mortality, and migration in the future.  To do so, some demographers analyze time series data (data in the past) and extrapolate it to the future. This is the way that the UN population projection was prepared, argued Abel, Barakat, KC, and Lutz (2016).

Yet, they argued that the future will be different from the past. They do not agree with the extrapolation method.   To make the assumptions, they collect expert opinion on what may happen in the future, especially with regards to the implementation of Sustainable Development Program. They insert “education” as the new variable in their population projection.

With their projection, the world population will reach its peak at around 2060 and will reach between 8.2 – 8.7 billion in 2010. This is much lower than the UN projection at between 9.5 billion and 13.0 billion in 2010. Projected increase in education, and the resulting decrease in fertility and mortality, will make the world population reaching its peak much earlier.

This paper is important for those who are preparing population projection as well as those who try to use results of population projection. Please click here.

Enjoy reading the article.

Aris Ananta

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Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, ,

Unsustainable Development Trap

Aris Ananta

Mletiko, 9 September 2014

The UN has declared “The Future We Want” as sustainable development, rather than a growth oriented development.

If we follow the UN concept of “The Future We Want”, we need evaluate some economic concepts we often heard today. One of them is poverty trap or middle income development trap. Indonesia is often feared to fall into a middle-income development trap, being as a middle-income country for a very long time. However, this concept is very growth oriented. It needs to be evaluated to suit the UN’s concept of “The Future We Want”.

Therefore, we need to introduce the concept on “unsustainable development trap”, rather than poverty trap or middle-income development trap. Conceptually, country or a community is “trapped” in unsustainable development when it cannot escape from a situation of continuously destroying its own environment. When members of a community cut trees from their close-by forest, the forest may suffer and eventually harm the community itself. When the cutting of the trees is still minimum, the forest can recover the trees. But when the cutting become more extensive and intensive, the forest lost its ability to recover the trees. The community suffers. Then, it seeks other forest or natural resources to destroy. It is ironic, that people destroy their own resources simply to survive. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: economy, English, poverty, statistics, , , ,

UN’s Revolution on Measuring Development

2 February 2012

Dear friends,

Good news. UN has started a great and important step to revise the measurement of development.  They will conduct a high-level forum on “Measuring the Unmeasurable: Challenge the Limits of Official Statistics” on 27 February 2012.

The following is a sample of the news, interviewing Porf. Paul Cheong, the UN’s statistician who leads the revolution in measuring development.

 “In order to remain relevant in a rapidly changing world, the statistical community has to continuously examine and push its own boundaries. Phenomena, which are not easily measurable today, may become important tomorrow, so we have to be prepared. In the past years it has become customary to explore ‘cutting edge’ issues in the format of a ‘high level forum’, which allows brainstorming and free-flowing exchange. In these discussions, we have to balance the desire to explore new ideas which may require new measurement tools and the need to preserve the credibility and reputation of official statistics.

This year’s event will focus on issues such as the measurement of happiness, well-being and ecosystem services and other difficult concepts. These are complicated topics with no clear measurement yardsticks. How to take the complex interaction between the environment and the economy into account and how to capture the level of well being in a country, which may include a high degree of subjectivity, will be discussed among the chief statisticians of the world.”

Related articles:

Your better life index
The Statistical Revolution is Finally Here

Filed under: economy, English, statistics, , , , , , ,

2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects

 

Dear Mletiko readers,

The United Nations has just published its 2010 revision of the world population prospects. Below is its flier.

Best regards,

Aris Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, , ,

Economic Consequences of Ageing Population

This is a power point presentation of a 2.5 hour lecture on “Economic Consequences of Ageing Population” in the  “Eleventh ASEAN Gerontology Course”, jointly organized by INIA-SAGE ASEAN Centre on Aging (ISACA), the International Institute on Ageing, United Nations – Malta (INIA), and the Singapore Action Group of Elders (SAGE) in Singapore, 26 July – 3 August 2010

Open here for the presentation EcoAgeing2010

This lecture was followed by another one on Social Security for Older Persons in Developing Countries

Filed under: ageing, Demography, economy, English, poverty, , , ,



This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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