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The Basis of Jokowi’s Claim to the Presidency

Dian Zhang

Election Watch – Indonesia, 12 July 2014

Within hours of polls closing in Wednesday’s Indonesia’s presidential election, both Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto had publicly claimed victory. Doubt thus remains over who will be installed as Indonesia’s seventh president, ahead of the electoral commission announcing an official result on 22 July.

How is it possible that both sides believe they have won this time? More importantly, with almost two weeks until the official result, what is the basis for each camp’s declaration?

Both candidates based their claims of victory on the results of so-called “quick counts” conducted on election day. A quick count is a tally of the actual votes at certain polling stations, selected to provide a representative sample of the overall result. Done properly, a quick count is an extremely accurate measure of the final election result.

(Typically, a quick count forecasts the election result plus or minus a margin of error (usually 1%) at a 99% confidence level. Statistically, this means that 99 times out of 100 the election result should fall within 1% either side of the quick count figure.)

Quick counts take advantage of the fact that each of Indonesia’s approximately 480,000 polling stations finish their count on polling day, after which the electoral commission takes many days to aggregate their individual counts to reach an overall result. This time lag makes quick counts a crucial accountability mechanism to guard against the tallies being manipulated. Electoral experts Eric Bjornlund and Glenn Cowan (the latter of whom invented quick counts in the 1980s) call quick counts ‘the only definitive vote count verification mechanism’.

The success of quick counts to accurately forecast election results has seen them used in the 2004 presidential election, both the 2009 and 2014 legislative and presidential elections, as well as in numerous of Indonesia’s hundreds of elections for district heads and governors.

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UN’s Revolution on Measuring Development

2 February 2012

Dear friends,

Good news. UN has started a great and important step to revise the measurement of development.  They will conduct a high-level forum on “Measuring the Unmeasurable: Challenge the Limits of Official Statistics” on 27 February 2012.

The following is a sample of the news, interviewing Porf. Paul Cheong, the UN’s statistician who leads the revolution in measuring development.

 “In order to remain relevant in a rapidly changing world, the statistical community has to continuously examine and push its own boundaries. Phenomena, which are not easily measurable today, may become important tomorrow, so we have to be prepared. In the past years it has become customary to explore ‘cutting edge’ issues in the format of a ‘high level forum’, which allows brainstorming and free-flowing exchange. In these discussions, we have to balance the desire to explore new ideas which may require new measurement tools and the need to preserve the credibility and reputation of official statistics.

This year’s event will focus on issues such as the measurement of happiness, well-being and ecosystem services and other difficult concepts. These are complicated topics with no clear measurement yardsticks. How to take the complex interaction between the environment and the economy into account and how to capture the level of well being in a country, which may include a high degree of subjectivity, will be discussed among the chief statisticians of the world.”

Related articles:

Your better life index
The Statistical Revolution is Finally Here

Filed under: economy, English, statistics, , , , , , ,

THE STATISTICAL REVOLUTION IS FINALLY HERE

Aris  Ananta

For The Jakarta Globe, 2 December  2010

World elites have gathered in Cancun, Mexico, to discuss solutions to the accumulating problems of rapid climate change. Some are pessimistic that this round of talks will result in concrete binding agreements. However, I see light in this gathering of world political power because of some important changes in, of all things, the world of statistical measurement. The influential World Bank has begun a revolution in the development paradigm by changing the way development is measured.

This is not only a statistical improvement, but a radical reorientation that overhauls not just the metrics but the way development is seen in mainstream economics with potentially far-reaching consequences. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: economy, English, statistics, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

WILL INDONESIA BE THE WORLD’S FIFTH LARGEST ECONOMY?

Aris  Ananta

The Jakarta Post, 25 October 2010

Since surviving from the recent global crisis, with economic growth rate at 4.5 percent in 2009, while many other countries suffered economic contraction, some economic observers have started projecting the emerging economic power of Indonesia. They began adding “I” (for Indonesia) to the emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, to make BRICI or IBRIC.

Recently, businessman Chairul Tanjung, who is also the chairman of National Economic Committee, an ad hoc forum for the President of Indonesia, made another grouping.  He said that in 2030, Indonesia, with a 285 million population, will become the fifth largest economy in the world, after China, the US, EU and India. He said that the gross domestic product of Indonesia will jump from the current US$700 billion to $5,100 billion in 2030.

In other words, Tanjung predicted that Indonesia’s economy would grow at an average of about 10.0 percent every year from next year until 2030. Per capita income in 2030 will be $17,895, assuming $1 is equal to 9,000 rupiah. Nevertheless, with an exception in 1987, Indonesia never achieved an annual economic growth rate of more than 9.0 percent.

Furthermore, after the start of the reform period in 1998, growth rates have never passed 6.5 percent. This year, the economic growth is predicted not to exceed 6.5 percent. Therefore, will Indonesia’s economy grow much faster since next year until 2030? Can Indonesia achieve that? Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: economy, English, statistics, , , , , , , ,



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