Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects


Dear Mletiko readers,

The United Nations has just published its 2010 revision of the world population prospects. Below is its flier.

Best regards,

Aris Read the rest of this entry »


Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, , ,


Aris  Ananta

The Jakarta Post, 25 October 2010

Since surviving from the recent global crisis, with economic growth rate at 4.5 percent in 2009, while many other countries suffered economic contraction, some economic observers have started projecting the emerging economic power of Indonesia. They began adding “I” (for Indonesia) to the emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries, to make BRICI or IBRIC.

Recently, businessman Chairul Tanjung, who is also the chairman of National Economic Committee, an ad hoc forum for the President of Indonesia, made another grouping.  He said that in 2030, Indonesia, with a 285 million population, will become the fifth largest economy in the world, after China, the US, EU and India. He said that the gross domestic product of Indonesia will jump from the current US$700 billion to $5,100 billion in 2030.

In other words, Tanjung predicted that Indonesia’s economy would grow at an average of about 10.0 percent every year from next year until 2030. Per capita income in 2030 will be $17,895, assuming $1 is equal to 9,000 rupiah. Nevertheless, with an exception in 1987, Indonesia never achieved an annual economic growth rate of more than 9.0 percent.

Furthermore, after the start of the reform period in 1998, growth rates have never passed 6.5 percent. This year, the economic growth is predicted not to exceed 6.5 percent. Therefore, will Indonesia’s economy grow much faster since next year until 2030? Can Indonesia achieve that? Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: economy, English, statistics, , , , , , , ,


Aris  Ananta

Evi Nurvidya Arifin

For the ISEAS Viewpoints, 3 September  2010

2010 is the year of census. Some observers  and officials in Indonesia have been alarmed with the release of the preliminary results of the 2010 population census. A return of the feared population explosion in Indonesia! The president has even been criticized for not dwelling further on this issue.

The fear started on 16 August 2010, when the President of Republic Indonesia in his state of the nation address mentioned, among other things, that Indonesia’s population reached 237.6 million in 2010.  This is based on the preliminary report of the 2010 Population Census conducted three months earlier. This number has shocked some observers on Indonesian population. The census shows that the number of population in 2010 is 5.1 million more than the number confidently projected by the UN. In other words, during the celebration of the 65thanniversary of their independence, Indonesians received a bonus of an additional 5.1 million population, even larger than the whole population of Singapore.  No wonder that some observers have even warned of the coming of another population explosion in Indonesia.

What happened to Indonesia’s population? Is the fear reasonable? Is there any, or going to be, another population explosion as happened 30 or 40 years ago? Or, it is a “normal” fluctuation in the trajectory of Indonesian population? Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: ageing, Demography, economy, English, statistics, , ,


Evi  Nurvidya Arifin

Aris  Ananta

THE JAKARTA POST, 28 August 2010

The release of the preliminary results of the 2010 population
census has sparked a revival of the old controversial issue of
overpopulation in Jakarta. Jakarta is home to a population of
9.6 million. To some observers, this figure came as a big
surprise. They then began blaming the “burgeoning” population as
the culprit for the many social problems and the economic
malaise in Jakarta, including the worsening traffic over the
past several years.

Why did they find it a surprise? According to the projection
published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2005,
Jakarta’s population should have been just 9 million in 2010.
The reality, as indicated by the census, exceeded this
projection by 600,000. It even exceeded the 9.3 million
projected to be achieved by 2025. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Demography, economy, English, , , ,

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