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HOW TO READ A QUICK COUNT

Andrew Thornley

Indonesia Votes, 11 July 2014

In the immediate aftermath of Indonesia’s presidential election, there has been intense scrutiny of not only a rack of quick count results, but the institutions conducting these and the media promoting their findings. In what was already a tight race between Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, eight quick counts have Jokowi ahead while four show Prabowo leading. How should we read these quick counts? And how significant are they?

Quick count results are gleaned from a sample of final results from the polling station level—as distinct from exit polls, which are a survey of voters as they leave the polling station (and are therefore not final and subject to levels of voter comfort in honestly declaring their choice).

Campaign talking heads in Indonesia have attempted to discredit quick counts—particularly those that show results leaning against their candidate—by suggesting that surveying results from around 2,000 polling stations, from some 500,000 polling stations around the country, cannot give an accurate picture.

This is baloney. To paraphrase an old saying, you do not need to eat a whole bowl of soup to sample the flavor; just one taste will suffice—assuming all of the ingredients have been mixed well.

The “ingredients” refer to the methodology that ensures quick count integrity. Credible quick counts will use a random sample of polling stations, taking into account factors that have a sufficiently significant impact on the distribution of votes among voters across the country to ensure against bias in the data.

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Filed under: English, , , ,

MIGRATION AND VIOLENCE IN INDONESIA

Aris  Ananta

For ISEAS  Newsletter, Vol II, 2010

“Most often, what appears to be religious conflict is political rivalry using religion as a strategy to create social and political instability”

Read the article in ISEAS Newsletter, PAGE 7

Filed under: English, internal migration, migration, , , , , , , , , ,

Indonesia: Will Mulyani’s Exit Slow Down Economic Growth?

Aris Ananta

ISEAS Viewpoints

17  May 2010

Whether forced or voluntary, the exit of Dr. Sri Mulyani Indrawati  from her post as Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia, has worried some investors and analysts that the Indonesian economy would be seriously hurt. High political maneuvering has been suspected behind the exit. However, her exit to a higher, world position as a Managing Director of the World Bank may be an optimal political compromise between President Yudhoyono and his attackers. The President may have released Mulyani  from her post  as an exchange with  tamed political tension, to avoid impeachment against the President and  Vice President.

The political tension since Yudhoyono started his second term in October 2009 has been very high and wild, especially with the Bank Century case. Opening the “wound” and “sins”  of each other, particularly its rivals, has become  a  recent common feature  in  Indonesia’s politics.  Politics have dominated news in Indonesia. For instance, a very important, high level, economic meeting, led by the President and attended by all ministers and governors, to socialize the economic targets during 2009-2014, failed to grasp significant space in Indonesia’s mass media.

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Filed under: economy, English, , , , , ,

Will Indonesia have a non-Javanese President?

Evi Nurvidya Arifin

Opinion Asia, 20 February 2010

Indonesia has been in transition in more ways than one. For over a decade, it has undergone social, economic and political transformation, portending tremendous change in the country. The island of Java and Javanese have played and will continue to play a pivotal role in this transition. Demographically, the Javanese represent the majority ethnic group comprising about 42% or 99 million out of Indonesia’s 230 million population. By any stretch, this is a huge number.

The Javanese Diaspora through Jakarta’s transmigration policy has provided a framework to understand the Indonesian geopolitical landscape. The transmigration policy of yesteryears was promoted to improve the national poverty profile by sending Javanese Indonesians to outlying islands thus giving them more land to improve their livelihood. The famous Javanese saying Mangan ora mangan pokoke kumpul (literally: eating or not, the most important thing is being together) is thus just a myth as the Javanese are spread throughout Indonesia’s 17,000 islands. In the neighbouring countries of Singapore and Malaysia, the Javanese comprise a significant portion of their Malay population.

From a cultural-political perspective, transmigration has been interpreted by Indonesians outside Java as a process of “Javanization”, Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: English, migration, , , , , , , , ,



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