Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

New Article on Ethnicity

Dear Readers,

As we continue working on ethnicity in Indonesia, we have just published a journal article, “Declining Dominance of an Ethnic Group in a Large Multi-Ethnic Developing Country: the Case of the Javanese in Indonesia”, Population Review, volume 55, number 1, 2016, pp. 1-26, written by Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utama, and Ari Purbowati.

Here is the abstract
Indonesia is undergoing a third demographic transition that features changes in ethnic composition.  We examine quantitatively the extent and change of dominance of the Javanese, who have experienced below replacement fertility.  As used herein, an ethnic group is said to be dominant if it is the largest ethnic group and its percentage is at least twice the percentage of the second largest ethnic group. The Javanese are the largest, most ubiquitous and politically important ethnic group in Indonesia. This quantitative analysis addresses the ethnic dominance and cultural hegemony literature. We question the ubiquity of the Javanese – who represent the process of Javanization – because Indonesia’s Javanese character/culture may be eroding. We find that among the Javanese living outside their three home provinces, the percentage of those who speak Javanese daily at home is very low.  These Javanese may have adapted to local conditions. We also find that the Javanese are not always the dominant or even the largest ethnic group. In most of the districts, they comprise a very small minority ethnic group.

An important finding is that the “third demographic transition” has been and continues to be occurring in Indonesia, a large developing country. Our findings expand the original concept of what constitutes a third demographic transition, which has been applied previously only to developed countries. We conclude that the Javanese are still dominant, but their dominance has declined, and that a third demographic transition is taking place in Indonesia.


Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, Ethnicity, Large Population, statistics, , ,

New Publication on Ageing

Dear Readers,

We have just published “The Past Three Population Censuses: A Deepening Ageing Population in Indonesia”. In Contemporary Demographic Transformation in China, India and Indonesia. Edited by Christophe Z. Guilmoto and Gavin W. Jones.  New York: Springer, 2016.

About the Chapter

This chapter highlights a deepening ageing population in Indonesia between 1990 and 2010, a period witnessing a political change from an authoritarian regime to a democratizing one. This transition brought a drastic shift in population policy, with a much weaker family planning programmes than during the authoritarian regime. Our assessment from the latest 2010 census suggests that the proportion of population aged 60 year and above was 7.6 percent in 2010, rising from 6.3 per cent in 1990; while the number increased to 18.0 million from 11.3 million. The growth rate of older persons for this period is well above the rate of the general population, 4.7 percent vs 2.9 percent annually.

This chapter also shows a large variation in the age structure of the sub-national population. The structure at the national level remains heavily affected by changes in fertility and mortality only. However, changes at sub-national levels, particularly district level, have also been determined by migration.

The latest census also depicts a significant improvement in educational attainment of older persons, as those without schooling decreased to 31.6 percent from 58.5 percent in 1990. At the same period, participation of the elderly in the labour market rose from 48.1 percent to 51.2 percent in the same period. Furthermore, working as self-employed in the agricultural sector remains to be the main source of financial well-being for the older persons.

Filed under: ageing, Demography, English, Uncategorized, , , , , ,

Three Mega-Demographic Trends in Indonesia

17 June 2015

Dear readers,

Attached is our power-point presented in an in-house seminar of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, on 10 June 2015.

I hope it can be useful for you.

Best regards,


Three Mega Demographic Trends

Filed under: ageing, Demography, economy, English, ,

For the Government of Jokowi: Food Security in Sustainable Development

Mletiko, 16 October 2014

Dear readers,

Attached is our paper Food Security in Sustainable Development , a short note presented at the International Symposium on Applied System Analysis for Sustainable Agriculture, conducted by Ministry of Agriculture, Republic of Indonesia in Jakarta, 14 October 2014. We hope this note can also be useful for the new Government to formulate its agricultural policies, especially within the framework of sustainable development, not economic growth. This note is also expected to trigger discussions on what Indonesians want to be in the future.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: English, , , , , , , , ,

Selamat Idul Fitri

Aris Ananta

27 Juli 2014

Para pembaca yang budiman,

Saya ucapkan Selamat Idul Fitri. Mohon maaf lahir dan batin untuk semua hal yang membuat anda tidak berkenan atas berbagai tulisan di blog ini. Mohon maaf kalau kita mempunyai perbedaan pilihan.

Masyarakat Indonesia makin sadar politik, dan mau berpartisipasi. Risikonya, kita semua sempat terbelah menjadi dua kelompok. Semoga polarisasi ini segera berakhir. Kita dapat bekerjasama dengan baik lagi, dapat berteman dengan enak lagi, dan membangun Indonesia yang makin damai dan rukun. Ini lah indahnya Indonesia kita yang beraneka dan warna-warni.

Semoga suhu politik kita menjadi sejuk kembali.

Sekali lagi, Selamat Idul Fitri. Mohon maaf lahir dan batin.



Tulisan terkait

*Bulan Puasa Hampir Usai

* Ramadan, Bulan yang Saya Nantikan

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, , , , ,

The Basis of Jokowi’s Claim to the Presidency

Dian Zhang

Election Watch – Indonesia, 12 July 2014

Within hours of polls closing in Wednesday’s Indonesia’s presidential election, both Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto had publicly claimed victory. Doubt thus remains over who will be installed as Indonesia’s seventh president, ahead of the electoral commission announcing an official result on 22 July.

How is it possible that both sides believe they have won this time? More importantly, with almost two weeks until the official result, what is the basis for each camp’s declaration?

Both candidates based their claims of victory on the results of so-called “quick counts” conducted on election day. A quick count is a tally of the actual votes at certain polling stations, selected to provide a representative sample of the overall result. Done properly, a quick count is an extremely accurate measure of the final election result.

(Typically, a quick count forecasts the election result plus or minus a margin of error (usually 1%) at a 99% confidence level. Statistically, this means that 99 times out of 100 the election result should fall within 1% either side of the quick count figure.)

Quick counts take advantage of the fact that each of Indonesia’s approximately 480,000 polling stations finish their count on polling day, after which the electoral commission takes many days to aggregate their individual counts to reach an overall result. This time lag makes quick counts a crucial accountability mechanism to guard against the tallies being manipulated. Electoral experts Eric Bjornlund and Glenn Cowan (the latter of whom invented quick counts in the 1980s) call quick counts ‘the only definitive vote count verification mechanism’.

The success of quick counts to accurately forecast election results has seen them used in the 2004 presidential election, both the 2009 and 2014 legislative and presidential elections, as well as in numerous of Indonesia’s hundreds of elections for district heads and governors.

For more stories, please read this.

Filed under: English, , , , ,


Andrew Thornley

Indonesia Votes, 11 July 2014

In the immediate aftermath of Indonesia’s presidential election, there has been intense scrutiny of not only a rack of quick count results, but the institutions conducting these and the media promoting their findings. In what was already a tight race between Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, eight quick counts have Jokowi ahead while four show Prabowo leading. How should we read these quick counts? And how significant are they?

Quick count results are gleaned from a sample of final results from the polling station level—as distinct from exit polls, which are a survey of voters as they leave the polling station (and are therefore not final and subject to levels of voter comfort in honestly declaring their choice).

Campaign talking heads in Indonesia have attempted to discredit quick counts—particularly those that show results leaning against their candidate—by suggesting that surveying results from around 2,000 polling stations, from some 500,000 polling stations around the country, cannot give an accurate picture.

This is baloney. To paraphrase an old saying, you do not need to eat a whole bowl of soup to sample the flavor; just one taste will suffice—assuming all of the ingredients have been mixed well.

The “ingredients” refer to the methodology that ensures quick count integrity. Credible quick counts will use a random sample of polling stations, taking into account factors that have a sufficiently significant impact on the distribution of votes among voters across the country to ensure against bias in the data.

More stories

Filed under: English, , , ,

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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