Mletiko!

Icon

Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Industri Rokok: Antara Pertumbuhan dan Kesehatan Masyarakat

Aris Ananta

SEPUTAR  INDONESIA, 23 Maret 2010

Dulu,setiap saya kembali ke Indonesia, begitu memasuki terminal Bandara Soekarno-Hatta, saya segera dihadapkan dengan kepulan asap rokok.

Sembari antre di loket imigrasi, baik orang Indonesia maupun asing seperti berlomba untuk merokok. Namun,sekarang keadaannya sudah amat berbeda. Terminal di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta sudah relatif bebas dari asap rokok. Namun, usaha untuk membersihkan udara kita dari asap rokok perlu terus ditingkatkan. Bandara di seluruh Indonesia–bukan hanya yang berskala internasional–dapat memberikan teladan.

Dua tahun lalu saya makan di salah satu terminal dalam negeri di salah satu bandara di Indonesia. Di ruang itu jelas tertulis “Dilarang Merokok”. Namun, orang dapat dengan tenang merokok di ruang itu. Saya memberitahu seorang pelayan mengenai hal itu. Dan ini jawabnya, “Mereka kan makan,Pak. Jadi, ya mesti merokok.” Read the rest of this entry »

Advertisements

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, economy, , , , , ,

Ledakan Penduduk Lansia,Krisis Keuangan,dan Kesejahteraan

Aris Ananta

SEPUTAR INDONESIA, 15 Maret 2010

Sepintas judul di atas mungkin tampak aneh.Pertama,kenapa jumlah penduduk lanjut usia (lansia) meledak? Seperti balon yang terus mengembang dan terbang tinggi, akhirnya meledak dan kempes,jatuh ke bawah.

Kedua, apa hubungannya dengan masalah keuangan,apalagi krisis keuangan? Bukankah para lansia tidak punya uang. Kalaupun punya, uangnya sudah tidak banyak. Bagaimana para lansia dapat menyebabkan krisis keuangan global? Pada era 1960-an,1970-an,hingga 1980-an, dunia dicemaskan dengan laju pertumbuhan penduduk yang meningkat cepat.Peningkatan ini akibat tingginya angka kelahiran. Jumlah anak-anak dan penduduk muda meningkat dengan cepat. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: ageing, Bahasa Indonesia, economy, , , , , , ,

Memahami Statistik Ekonomi: Inflasi Turun, Daya Beli Meningkat?

Aris Ananta

Seputar Indonesia, 10 Maret 2010

Seorang kawan pernah meluapkan kekecewaan pada statistik pemerintah yang dikeluarkan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS).Dia marah dan mengatakan bahwa data BPS ngawur dan BPS tidak melihat kondisi lapangan.

”Baca di koran enggak? Katanya, angka inflasi turun,dari 0,84% pada Januari 2010 ke 0,30% pada Februari 2010. Padahal, di pasar harga-harga tetap naik. Kalau Anda tidak percaya, ayo kita ke pasar!”

Saya mencoba menenangkan teman saya ini.Saya katakan ke teman tersebut bahwa sekarang sudah memasuki Maret 2010. Data yang diumumkan BPS itu untuk Februari 2010.Dengan begitu,kita tidak bisa mencocokkan data BPS itu dengan yang sekarang terjadi di pasar.

”Baik. Kalau begitu,Anda percaya saja pada saya.Hampir setiap minggu saya pergi ke pasar. Bulan lalu saya juga ke pasar.Dan bulan lalu pun saya melihat kenaikan harga itu. Nah, apakah ini cocok dengan data BPS?”

Saya bertanya kepada teman tersebut,apa saja yang ia beli bulan lalu. Teman saya agak meradang dengan pertanyaan saya.

”Tentu saja saya beli beras. Juga cabe rawit, yang jadi hobi saya.”

”Anda beli ikan segar dan telur ayam ras atau tidak?”

”Tentu saja tidak, saya vegetarian. Lalu,ada apa?”

”Anda beli minyak goreng?”

”Saya mengikuti pola hidup sehat, saya jarang menggoreng.”

”Bulan lalu,Anda membeli pakaian atau tidak?”

”Saya orangnya sederhana. Tidak berhobi membeli pakaian. Bulan lalu saya sama sekali tidak membeli pakaian.Pertanyaan Anda makin aneh saja!”

”Beli emas?”

”Pertanyaan apa lagi ini. Saya tak punya uang untuk membeli emas.”

Melihat teman saya makin kesal dengan pertanyaan saya, saya pun kemudian mengatakan kepadanya bahwa kebetulan sekali barang-barang yang tidak dia konsumsi (ikan segar, telur ayam ras, minyak goreng, pakaian, dan emas) sedang mengalami penurunan harga pada Februari. Celakanya, harga beras dan cabe rawit, yang dia konsumsi, justru meningkat banyak. Saya katakan kepadanya bahwa dia kesal pada data BPS karena dia mengonsumsi barang-barang yang harganya naik. Kebetulan pula dia menyewa rumah dan sewa rumah memang naik pada Februari.

Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, economy, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , ,

Naikkan Suku Bunga Penabung Kecil

Aris Ananta

Seputar Indonesia 23 Februari 2010

Agustus tahun lalu Nida sangat marah dengan perbankan Indonesia. Garagaranya, nilai tabungannya menurun setelah setahun didiamkan.

Dia juga mengeluh pada orang tuanya yang meminta untuk menabung di bank. Sebagai mahasiswa yang tinggal jauh dari orang tua, Nida memanfaatkan bank untuk menabung uang kiriman orang tua.Tabungan itu dimaksudkan sebagai cadangan jika ada keperluan mendadak. Selama setahun dia tidak memanfaatkan dana tersebut, hingga pada Agustus lalu saat kiriman orang tuanya terlambat. Namun, dia sungguh stres karena tidak bisa mengambil uangnya. Jumlah tabungannya sudah berkurang banyak sekali. Nida baru sadar bahwa nilai tabungannya terlalu sedikit.

Sudah bunganya terlalu kecil, kena pajak lagi. Bunga ini lebih rendah dari biaya administrasi sehingga dalam setahun uang Nida justru terus menurun. Bukan hanya Nida yang stres. Orang tuanya pun ikut stres. Beruntung, masih ada sistem tradisional, yaitu memanfaatkan jaringan pertemanan.Nida pun mendapatkan pinjaman dari teman orang tuanya. Nida marah karena bank tidak memberitahukan kemungkinan ini. Nida merasa tertipu.Jumlah setoran minimal yang disyaratkan bank tampaknya tidak menjamin bahwa uangnya tidak akan berkurang. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, economy, , , , , , , , , ,

Will Indonesia have a non-Javanese President?

Evi Nurvidya Arifin

Opinion Asia, 20 February 2010

Indonesia has been in transition in more ways than one. For over a decade, it has undergone social, economic and political transformation, portending tremendous change in the country. The island of Java and Javanese have played and will continue to play a pivotal role in this transition. Demographically, the Javanese represent the majority ethnic group comprising about 42% or 99 million out of Indonesia’s 230 million population. By any stretch, this is a huge number.

The Javanese Diaspora through Jakarta’s transmigration policy has provided a framework to understand the Indonesian geopolitical landscape. The transmigration policy of yesteryears was promoted to improve the national poverty profile by sending Javanese Indonesians to outlying islands thus giving them more land to improve their livelihood. The famous Javanese saying Mangan ora mangan pokoke kumpul (literally: eating or not, the most important thing is being together) is thus just a myth as the Javanese are spread throughout Indonesia’s 17,000 islands. In the neighbouring countries of Singapore and Malaysia, the Javanese comprise a significant portion of their Malay population.

From a cultural-political perspective, transmigration has been interpreted by Indonesians outside Java as a process of “Javanization”, Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: English, migration, , , , , , , , ,

Mau Kaya atau Mau Sehat?

Aris Ananta

SEPUTAR INDONESIA, Selasa, 3 November 2009

Kasus pertama, saya pernah berjumpa dengan seseorang yang relatif kaya. Dia tidak perlu mencari uang lagi. Rumahnya besar dan bagus namun dia selalu sakit-sakitan.

Uang yang dia terima banyak dikeluarkan untuk mengobati penyakitnya. Dia juga tak dapat banyak bergerak. Jumlah makanan yang dapat dimakan amat terbatas. Penglihatannya tidak begitu jelas lagi, pendengaran terganggu, dan pikirannya sudah tidak jelas lagi.

Kasus kedua.Saya juga pernah berjumpa dengan seseorang yang amat sehat.Makannya sederhana. Karena selain tidak mempunyai banyak uang, dia memang hanya saya senang makan buah, sayur, tempe, tahu, dan biji-bijian yang harganya relatif murah.

Dia masih bisa bebas bergerak. Pikirannya masih jelas dan tajam. Dia jarang sakit.Kalau pun sakit,dia hanya ke tukang pijat, yang lebih murah daripada ke dokter dan mengonsumsi antibiotik. Penglihatan relatif masih bagus dan pendengarannya relatif baik. Dia tidak kaya tetapi dia sehat. Kasus ketiga. Sering pula saya berjumpa dengan teman-teman berusia 40-an dan 50-an, yang begitu aktif bekerja untuk penghasilan dan karier mereka.Tidak mengenal istirahat, makan tidak teratur, dan bahkan yang dimakan pun tidak sehat. Tidak sempat olahraga. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, economy, , , , ,

Fluidity of Indonesian Politics and the Islamist PKS

Before the parliamentary election conducted on 9 April 2009, the PKS (Prosperous and Justice Party) has been courting with the incumbent President Yudhoyono and his party, the nationalist PD (Democrat Party). Five years ago, in the 2004 parliamentary election, PKS and PD had become the two new emerging parties. Each of them could surprisingly earn about 7 per cent of the votes. PD had been able to lure nationalist voters who were disappointed with the then two largest nationalist parties (GOLKAR and PDI-P). PKS attracted Muslim constituents who wanted to have a stronger Islamist party who did not campaign for shariah and an Islamic state. Interestingly, both of PD and PKS have similar markets: the urban and educated voters.

However, PKS was not really new in 2004. It was PK (Justice Party) in 1999 parliamentary election, who enthusiastically and publicly campaigned for the implementation of shariah and the creation of an Islamic state. However, it secured less than 2 per cent of the votes. It then transformed into PKS. Not only changing the name, the PKS also adopted a new marketing strategy. It did not explicitly campaign for the implementation of shariah and the creation of an Islamic state. With the new name and marketing strategy, PKS earned its success in the 2004 parliamentary election.

The PD’s success in the 2004 parliamentary election was followed in the 2004 presidential elections, where Yudhoyono, the candidate from PD, supported by the Islamist PKS, defeated Megawati, the candidate of a coalition between the then two largest nationalist parties: PDI-P and Golkar. After the victory of Yudhoyono, who picked up Kalla from Golkar to be his vice president, Golkar shifted its alliance. Golkar switched to Yudhoyono, the winner. Golkar then appointed Kalla as its chairperson. PDI-P chose to be an opposition party, refusing any cabinet position.

The history was almost repeated in the 2009. Before the parliamentary election, Golkar made a coalition with PDI-P to challenge PD who made a coalition with PKS. However, Kalla, the incumbent Vice President, decided to split from Yudhoyono and challenged Yudhoyono at the presidential election. The decision of Kalla, and Golkar, to leave Yudhoyono made Yudhoyono and his PD closer to the PKS. The other large nationalist party, PDI-P, with Megawati as the leader, is clearly out of the option as it is almost impossible to unite Yudhoyono and Megawati. Yudhoyono was then rumoured to pick Hidayat Nur Wahid from PKS to become his vice presidential candidate.

However, the preliminary results and quick counts of the 2009 parliamentary election show that PD is almost sure to be the winner, obtaining about 20 per cent of the votes, three times as high as its performance in 2004. PD also performed much better than Golkar and PDI-P, who secured the second and third winners. At the same time, PKS increased a little to be about 8 per cent of the votes, sitting as the fourth largest party. With this result, as in 2004, Golkar then changed its alliance. It eyed the PD again, hoping to have Kalla back as Yudhoyonono’s vice presidential candidate. Next, Yudhoyono left PKS. Some elites of PKS have been very angry. They felt betrayed by Yudhoyono and its PD. They threatened to quit from the coalition with PD.

As Golkar broke the coalition with PDI-P, PDI-P was then trying to forge a coalition with two others, new and small, nationalist parties-Gerindra and Hanura. Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement) is led by General Prabowo Subianto, the former son-in-law of former President Suharto, who gained more than 4 per cent of the votes. Hanura (People’s Conscience) is led by General Wiranto, the Military Commander during President Habibie, who obtained almost 4 per cent of the vote.

Then, things changed very quickly. Again, Kalla, and Golkar, left Yudhoyono and PD. Kalla became the presidential candidate from Golkar. Kalla considers resuming the coalition with PDI-P and joining the coalition of three nationalist parties. On the other hand, Yudhoyono would not pick a vice presidential candidate from Golkar. He also remained firm not to bring Hidayat Nurwahid from PKS to be the vice presidential candidate.

What are the alternatives of PKS? First alternative is to support whoever the likely winner of the presidential election, although the vice presidential candidate is not from PKS. Because Yudhoyono is currently the most likely winner, PKS may continue to throw the support to Yudhoyono. Second alternative is to make a coalition with the two large nationalist Golkar and PDI-P and two small nationalist parties of Gerindra and Hanura. However, the four nationalist parties may not be keen to make an alliance with the PKS. The third alternative is to make a coalition with the remaining smaller parties, but the PKS may face an uphill task as a presidential candidate must be supported by at least 25 per cent of the votes.

The last alternative is for the PKS to become an opposition party, whoever the winner of the presidential election. This will make PKS a more respected party—a party which has its own vision, and not simply hungry for power. Being an opposition party, the PKS will be able to raise its popularity if, at the same time, it also shows to the Indonesian people that PKS is really advocating peace and tolerance amidst the rich diversity of Indonesian population and that it does not have any hidden agenda, of creating an Islamic state, as often accused by its rivals.

(Aris Ananta is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore).

Filed under: English, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

Our research interest is the intersection of:

Categories

Archives

Visitors

  • 142,284

Our Books

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 93 other followers