Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Ageing. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia

5 July 2017


Just published

Dear Readers,


You may be interested in our latest publication.


Evi Nurvidya Arifin, Aris Anana, and Tri Budi Rahardjo. “Population Ageing in Indonesia”. In Ageing. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia. Demographic Transition, Policy and Programmatic Responses. Edited by Anthony Abeykoon, Nora Murat, Gessen Rocas and Aurelio Carmin Naraval.  Selangor, Malaysia: International Council on Management of Population Programme (ICOMP), 2017.

Please click here for the complete book. You will find not only our chapter, but also chapters on Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia.


Filed under: ageing, Demography, English, Large Population, migration

Third Demographic Transition: Call for Papers

24 April 2017


Population Review is seeking quantitative research papers on the Third Demographic Transition (TDT). As originally discussed by Professor David Coleman in 2006, the TDT is underpinned by the assumption that population mobility, particularly migration, alters the ethnic/race composition of a population in developed countries, resulting in positive and negative socioeconomic consequences.  In 2016, Professor Aris Ananta found that a similar pattern materialized in developing countries (e.g. Indonesia).


This call for papers seeks high-quality contributions on the TDT as it applies to both developed and developing countries. Papers may include a topic within a specific country, a collection of countries or an entire geographical region. Papers that survive the peer-review process will be compiled into a Special Collection, which will be accessible online at

For more detailed information, please read TDT. Call for Papers

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, internal migration, international migration, migration, statistics

Just Published. “Population of SIJORI”

14 June 2016

Dear Readers,

I just have a new publication, on the demography of SIJORI (Singapore – Johor – Province of Riau Island), entitled “The Population of the SIJORI Cross-Bordern Region”. It is Chapter 2 in The SIJORI Cross-Border Regions: Trans national Political, Economics, and Culture. Edited by Francis E. Hutchinson and Terence Chong. Singapore: ISEAS – Yushof Ishak Institute, 2016.

More details are referred to here.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta



Filed under: Demography, English, Kepulauan Riau, Johor, Singapore, migration, statistics

Free Articles on International Population Mobility

Aris Ananta

Mletiko, 24 June 2014

Just published. Available from the Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 51 (1), 2014

Dear Readers,

I am happy to share with you all articles in the special issues on international migration in Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 51 (1), 2014.

Please download the special issues on international migration.

Abdul Rahman

Aris Ananta

Azzizah Kassim

Charles Hirchman

Gavin W.Jones

Greame Hugo


Nai-Peng Tey.

Cover Outline

I hope you enjoy these articles.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, economy, English, international migration, migration, ,

Emerging Patterns of Indonesia’s International Migration


Aris Ananta
Evi Nurvidya Arifin

Malasyian Journal of Economic Studies 51 (1), 29-41, 2014

Abstract: Indonesia has undergone tremendous changes, especially since 1998, when people began to realise their human rights to start off the democratisation process. This political change is facilitated by demographic changes, especially increased mobility of the population, and rapid economic growth at 6.0 per cent and over since 2007, except during the global recession in 2009. Contemporary population issues in Indonesia are very different from those in 1970s and even 1990s. High fertility and population growth are no longer pressing problems. However, population ageing and migration have become increasingly important emerging issues. Furthermore, the large and ever growing population, along with high economic growth, has led to Indonesia emerging as a global economic powerhouse. This paper attempts to examine some new trends in Indonesia’s international migration, both out-migration from and in-migration to Indonesia. More and more Indonesians have moved to other countries to pursue higher education and job opportunities, and to settle down. On the other hand, rapid economic growth and the large consumer market have attracted increasing number of foreigners to work and invest in Indonesia. International population mobility is becoming a more important demographic process, with profound ramifications on economic development in Indonesia and other countries, in ASEAN and beyond.

For full paper in PDF, please download

Filed under: Demography, English, international migration, migration, ,

Three Demographic Trends in Indonesia

Evi Nurvidya Arifin

Aris Ananta


This article discusses three mega-demographic trends in Indonesia, which have and will have important social, economic, and political implications. Any development planning needs to seriously consider these trends, namely, an ever-growing population, an emerging rapidly aging population, and emerging highly mobile Indonesians within the country and migrating out from the country.

This article was published in  Social Development Issues. Alternative Approaches to Global Human Needs. Volume 35, 2013, Number 3.

Attached is file containing the introduction, outline, and conclusion of the Three Mega-Demographic Trends in Indonesia.  (*)

Filed under: ageing, Demography, economy, English, environment, international migration, migration, poverty, statistics,


Aris  Ananta

Mletiko, 25 January, 2013

The word “demographic transition’ was first coined by a French demographer, Adolphe Landry, in the seminal publication  La Revolution Demographique, published in 1934. The theory of demographic transition was then reformulated  by an American demographer, Frank W. Notestein during 1945-1953. Kingsley David joined this work in establishing the foundation of the theory of demographic transition.

In essence, the theory of demographic transition attempts to describe a general pattern of demographic changes a country may experience. It states that initially a country experiences a level of demographic equilibrium (with very low population growth or no growth at all) because of both high fertility and mortality rates. Then, mortality and fertility decline. Finally, mortality and fertility will be very low. Again, at this stage, population growth is very low. This process, from high fertility and mortality rates to low fertility and mortality rates,  is  called as the demographic transition.

The real process may not be as smooth as described by this theory. Critics say that this is not a theory since it does not provide any sufficient explanation for the causes of the transition. Some say that “demographic transition” may not be a “theory”, but it is a way to describe demographic changes because of declining fertility and mortality rates.

One  weakness of this “demographic transition” is that it has not discussed change in population mobility. Then, in 1970s  Zelinsky  examined stages of internal population mobility (mobility within a country).  Skeldon in 1990  improved Zelinsky’s concept. However, both Zelinsky and Skeldon only briefly examined international population mobility and its connection with the stages of internal population mobility. Others, such as Stahl and Appleyard, in 1990s,  developed a separate theory of  stages of international population mobility. This framework relates changes in international population mobility to international movement of capital. It is unfortunate that there has been no  result of putting the demographic transition, internal population mobility transition, and international population mobility transition into one unifying framework.

Meanwhile, in 1980s, Van de Kaa  created another terminology “the second demographic transition”. He refers the “demographic transition” pioneered by Landry and reformulated by Notestein and David, the one we usually hear,  as “the first demographic transition”. Van De Kaa described  replacement level fertility and mortality (with TFR at about 2.1) as the end of the first demographic transition. After that, when fertility and mortality levels are below replacement level, the population is in the second demographic transition. Fertility level is usually fluctuating.  During this period, there will be new norms regarding individual behaviour and family. Social norm will shift to the appreciation of individual aspiration and needs.

At the national level, Indonesia almost completes the first demographic transition. But, some provinces have completed the first demographic transition and have been in the second demographic transition.

During the second demographic transition, with an intense inter-relationship between ageing and migration, we have the another  demographic transition. Colement (2006) called this as the “third demographic transition”.  This is related to a fast change in ethnic composition because of rising population mobility, particularly the inflow of different ethnic and religious groups. The fast change in ethnic composition in a given population may create social, economic, and political conflicts.   Indonesia has seen this phenomenon too. *


Filed under: Demography, English, international migration, migration, statistics,

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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