Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Third Demographic Transition: Call for Papers

24 April 2017


Population Review is seeking quantitative research papers on the Third Demographic Transition (TDT). As originally discussed by Professor David Coleman in 2006, the TDT is underpinned by the assumption that population mobility, particularly migration, alters the ethnic/race composition of a population in developed countries, resulting in positive and negative socioeconomic consequences.  In 2016, Professor Aris Ananta found that a similar pattern materialized in developing countries (e.g. Indonesia).


This call for papers seeks high-quality contributions on the TDT as it applies to both developed and developing countries. Papers may include a topic within a specific country, a collection of countries or an entire geographical region. Papers that survive the peer-review process will be compiled into a Special Collection, which will be accessible online at

For more detailed information, please read TDT. Call for Papers


Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, internal migration, international migration, migration, statistics

Apinya Para Jago

Aris Ananta, 22 Januari 2017

Imlek (Chinese New Year) segera tiba. Tahun akan berganti dengan Tahun Ayam Jago.

Di tahun ini akan muncul para “Jago”, yang membusungkan dada, memamerkan kehebatan mereka.

Semoga tahun ini berisi para Jago yang penuh kasih-sayang, mudah memaafkan. Para Jago yang membawa rasa nyaman, bukan mengobarkan kemarahan dan kebencian. Para Jago yang membusungkan dada bahwa mereka toleran, tidak gampang marah. Para Jago yang bersaing dalam menciptakan kedamaian di antara semua manusia, semua mahluk hidup dan lingkungan mereka.

Tahun yang segera datang adalah juga Tahun Ayam Jago yang bersifat api. Semoga para Jago membawa api saling memaafkan, api pencerahan jiwa, api kedamaian, api kasih sayang, api persaudaraan, api kebersamaan, api keragaman. Para Jago yang anti korupsi dalam perbuatan sehari hari, yang bekerja keras dengan jujur, yang menjaga lingkungan mereka, yang selalu mengasihi siapa saja.

Kita semua adalah para Jago, tidak pandang usia, jenis kelamin, pendidikan, agama, suku bangsa dan berbagai latar belakang kita.

Selamat Imlek.

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Ethnicity

Chinese Indonesians: How Many,Who and Where

Just Published on line

Evi Nuvidya Arifin, M. Sairi Hasbullah, and Agus Pramono. “Chinese Indonesians: How Many and Where”, Asian Ethnicity, 2016, on-line.

This paper provides new statistics to the debate on percentage of Chinese Indonesians, using the latest 100% data set of the 2010 population census. It reveals that the statistics is closer to the low side of the debate, less than 2.0%, rather than the high side of 3.0% and more. Ethnicity is here self-defined by the respondents. With 1.2%, the Chinese Indonesians ranked as the 15th largest group of more than 600 ethnic groups. This paper also produces statistics at the district level, the first ever statistics on Chinese Indonesians. It finds that some provinces and districts have large percentages of Chinese Indonesians, but the respective total population are relatively small to the total Indonesia’s population. Majority of provinces and districts (25 out of 33 provinces and 415 out of 497 districts) have lower percentage of Chinese than the national figure.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, Ethnicity, Uncategorized,

New Article on Ethnicity

Dear Readers,

As we continue working on ethnicity in Indonesia, we have just published a journal article, “Declining Dominance of an Ethnic Group in a Large Multi-Ethnic Developing Country: the Case of the Javanese in Indonesia”, Population Review, volume 55, number 1, 2016, pp. 1-26, written by Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utama, and Ari Purbowati.

Here is the abstract
Indonesia is undergoing a third demographic transition that features changes in ethnic composition.  We examine quantitatively the extent and change of dominance of the Javanese, who have experienced below replacement fertility.  As used herein, an ethnic group is said to be dominant if it is the largest ethnic group and its percentage is at least twice the percentage of the second largest ethnic group. The Javanese are the largest, most ubiquitous and politically important ethnic group in Indonesia. This quantitative analysis addresses the ethnic dominance and cultural hegemony literature. We question the ubiquity of the Javanese – who represent the process of Javanization – because Indonesia’s Javanese character/culture may be eroding. We find that among the Javanese living outside their three home provinces, the percentage of those who speak Javanese daily at home is very low.  These Javanese may have adapted to local conditions. We also find that the Javanese are not always the dominant or even the largest ethnic group. In most of the districts, they comprise a very small minority ethnic group.

An important finding is that the “third demographic transition” has been and continues to be occurring in Indonesia, a large developing country. Our findings expand the original concept of what constitutes a third demographic transition, which has been applied previously only to developed countries. We conclude that the Javanese are still dominant, but their dominance has declined, and that a third demographic transition is taking place in Indonesia.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, Ethnicity, Large Population, statistics, , ,

New Publication on Ethnicity

Dear Readers,

As a continuation of Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity, we have published

Quantifying Indonesia’s  Ethnic Diversity. Statistics at National, Provincial, and District Levels.” Asian Population Studies, Volume 11, Issue 3, 2015. Written by Evi Nurvidya Arifin, Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utami, Nur Budi Handayani, and Agus Pramono.

Here is the abstract

Ethnicity used to be a political taboo in Indonesia, a country with more than 600 ethnic groups, but this has changed since the advent of the Reform era (1998). The government of Indonesia (through Statistics-Indonesia) included a question on ethnicity in its 2000 population census, and continued in the 2010 census. This paper produces the first estimates of ethnic diversity at the national, provincial, and district levels using tabulations provided by Statistics-Indonesia based on the full enumeration data set of the 2010 Indonesia Population Census. It analyzes three measurements of ethnic diversity: the percentage of the largest ethnic group, Ethnic Fractionalization Index (EFI), and Ethnic Polarization Index (EPOI). This paper provides a quantitative start for further studies to link ethnic diversity with many social, economic, and political variables, including studies on the dynamics of ethnic diversity. We conclude that Indonesia is relatively ethnically fractionalized, though not as polarized. Among provinces and districts, we have seen a continuum ranging from ethnically homogeneous to heterogeneous, from the least fractionalized to the most fractionalized, and from the least polarized to the most polarized province or district. Variation in ethnic diversity is also seen across islands although provinces and districts in the Island of Java are more likely to be homogeneous, less fractionalized and less polarized than provinces and districts outside Java Island.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, statistics, ,

Seminar on Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity

Teman teman yang budiman,

Buku Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity akan diseminarkan di BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik) pada tanggal 20 Oktober 2015, dari jam 9 hingga 12. Buku ini merupakan hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Aris Ananta,  Evi Nurvidya Arifin, M. Sairi Hasbullah, Nur Budi Handayani, dan Agus Pramono.

M. Sairi Hasbullah, Evi Nurvidya Arifin, dan Aris Ananta akan berbicara di seminar tersebut.  Dendi Ramdani  akan menjadi pembahas.

Undangan dapat dilihat di Undangan Seminar Demografi of Indonesia’s Ethnicity.


Aris Ananta

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Demography, Ethnicity, ,

Penduduk Tua dan Pasar Pagi di Singapura

Aris  Ananta

Singapura, Sabtu, 28 Agustus 2010

Coba lihat gambar berikut ini? Terbayangkan kah apa yang kerumunan itu lakukan? Apa yang mereka tonton?

Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: ageing, Bahasa Indonesia, Ethnicity, , , , ,

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

Our research interest is the intersection of:




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