Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Just Published. “Population of SIJORI”

14 June 2016

Dear Readers,

I just have a new publication, on the demography of SIJORI (Singapore – Johor – Province of Riau Island), entitled “The Population of the SIJORI Cross-Bordern Region”. It is Chapter 2 in The SIJORI Cross-Border Regions: Trans national Political, Economics, and Culture. Edited by Francis E. Hutchinson and Terence Chong. Singapore: ISEAS – Yushof Ishak Institute, 2016.

More details are referred to here.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta




Filed under: Demography, English, Kepulauan Riau, Johor, Singapore, migration, statistics

New Article on Ethnicity

Dear Readers,

As we continue working on ethnicity in Indonesia, we have just published a journal article, “Declining Dominance of an Ethnic Group in a Large Multi-Ethnic Developing Country: the Case of the Javanese in Indonesia”, Population Review, volume 55, number 1, 2016, pp. 1-26, written by Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utama, and Ari Purbowati.

Here is the abstract
Indonesia is undergoing a third demographic transition that features changes in ethnic composition.  We examine quantitatively the extent and change of dominance of the Javanese, who have experienced below replacement fertility.  As used herein, an ethnic group is said to be dominant if it is the largest ethnic group and its percentage is at least twice the percentage of the second largest ethnic group. The Javanese are the largest, most ubiquitous and politically important ethnic group in Indonesia. This quantitative analysis addresses the ethnic dominance and cultural hegemony literature. We question the ubiquity of the Javanese – who represent the process of Javanization – because Indonesia’s Javanese character/culture may be eroding. We find that among the Javanese living outside their three home provinces, the percentage of those who speak Javanese daily at home is very low.  These Javanese may have adapted to local conditions. We also find that the Javanese are not always the dominant or even the largest ethnic group. In most of the districts, they comprise a very small minority ethnic group.

An important finding is that the “third demographic transition” has been and continues to be occurring in Indonesia, a large developing country. Our findings expand the original concept of what constitutes a third demographic transition, which has been applied previously only to developed countries. We conclude that the Javanese are still dominant, but their dominance has declined, and that a third demographic transition is taking place in Indonesia.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, Ethnicity, Large Population, statistics, , ,

New Publication on Ageing

Dear Readers,

We have just published “The Past Three Population Censuses: A Deepening Ageing Population in Indonesia”. In Contemporary Demographic Transformation in China, India and Indonesia. Edited by Christophe Z. Guilmoto and Gavin W. Jones.  New York: Springer, 2016.

About the Chapter

This chapter highlights a deepening ageing population in Indonesia between 1990 and 2010, a period witnessing a political change from an authoritarian regime to a democratizing one. This transition brought a drastic shift in population policy, with a much weaker family planning programmes than during the authoritarian regime. Our assessment from the latest 2010 census suggests that the proportion of population aged 60 year and above was 7.6 percent in 2010, rising from 6.3 per cent in 1990; while the number increased to 18.0 million from 11.3 million. The growth rate of older persons for this period is well above the rate of the general population, 4.7 percent vs 2.9 percent annually.

This chapter also shows a large variation in the age structure of the sub-national population. The structure at the national level remains heavily affected by changes in fertility and mortality only. However, changes at sub-national levels, particularly district level, have also been determined by migration.

The latest census also depicts a significant improvement in educational attainment of older persons, as those without schooling decreased to 31.6 percent from 58.5 percent in 1990. At the same period, participation of the elderly in the labour market rose from 48.1 percent to 51.2 percent in the same period. Furthermore, working as self-employed in the agricultural sector remains to be the main source of financial well-being for the older persons.

Filed under: ageing, Demography, English, Uncategorized, , , , , ,

New Publication on Ethnicity

Dear Readers,

As a continuation of Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity, we have published

Quantifying Indonesia’s  Ethnic Diversity. Statistics at National, Provincial, and District Levels.” Asian Population Studies, Volume 11, Issue 3, 2015. Written by Evi Nurvidya Arifin, Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utami, Nur Budi Handayani, and Agus Pramono.

Here is the abstract

Ethnicity used to be a political taboo in Indonesia, a country with more than 600 ethnic groups, but this has changed since the advent of the Reform era (1998). The government of Indonesia (through Statistics-Indonesia) included a question on ethnicity in its 2000 population census, and continued in the 2010 census. This paper produces the first estimates of ethnic diversity at the national, provincial, and district levels using tabulations provided by Statistics-Indonesia based on the full enumeration data set of the 2010 Indonesia Population Census. It analyzes three measurements of ethnic diversity: the percentage of the largest ethnic group, Ethnic Fractionalization Index (EFI), and Ethnic Polarization Index (EPOI). This paper provides a quantitative start for further studies to link ethnic diversity with many social, economic, and political variables, including studies on the dynamics of ethnic diversity. We conclude that Indonesia is relatively ethnically fractionalized, though not as polarized. Among provinces and districts, we have seen a continuum ranging from ethnically homogeneous to heterogeneous, from the least fractionalized to the most fractionalized, and from the least polarized to the most polarized province or district. Variation in ethnic diversity is also seen across islands although provinces and districts in the Island of Java are more likely to be homogeneous, less fractionalized and less polarized than provinces and districts outside Java Island.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, statistics, ,

Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity

Demography of Indonesia's Ethnicity

12 July 2015

Dear friends,

A new book Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity was just published by Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, on 15 July 2015. Written by Aris Ananta and Evi Nurvidya Arifin, who were with the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies during the writing of the book but now with the University of Indonesia, and three statisticians from Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia (M. Sairi Hasbullah, Nur Budi Handayani, and Agus Pramono), this book provides the first detailed statistics on ethnicity in Indonesia at both national and provincial levels. The statistics were calculated from the tabulation provided by the BPS based on the 100 percent sample of the raw data set of the Indonesia 2010 population census. The use of the 100 percent sample, rather than 10 percent or smaller, raises the accuracy of the statistics.

One of the important features of the book is the construction of New Classification of ethnic groups in Indonesia. The data on ethnicity in the raw data set is still very raw. (It is supposed to be raw, to let users decide how to regroup them.) One ethnic group can have more than one name, more than one spelling. One ethnic group can also have sub or sub-sub ethnic groups. There are also names which do not exist in the existing literatures. Therefore, the five authors enjoyed the virtual travel throughout Indonesia, reading sociological and anthropological literatures and consulting with local expertise by reading the data. They then constructed the New Classification, consisting of more than 630 ethnic groups in the whole Indonesia. This New Classification is made user-friendly, along with the codes, to facilitate easy analyses for those whoever work with the data.

With the New Classification, the authors produce the statistics on ethnicity. Because of time and space constraint, most of the discussion is focused on the fifteen largest ethnic groups in Indonesia: Javanese (40.06 percent), Sundanese (15.51 percent), Malay (3.70 percent), Batak (3.58 percent), Madurese (3.03 percent), Betawi (2.87 percent), Minangkabau (2.73 percent), Buginese (2.71 percent), Bantenese (1.96 percent), Banjarese (1.74 percent), Balinese (1.66 percent), Acehnese (1.44 percent), Dayak (1.36 percent), Sasak (1.34 percent), and Chinese (1.20 percent). The New Classification can be downloaded freely from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.
However, in Chapter 4, they also discuss the ten largest ethnic groups in each province, which may not be the same as those at the national level. Because of the large number of ethnic groups in Land of Papua, Islands of Maluku, and Province of Central Sulawesi, the authors examine the fifteen largest ethnic groups in Province of Central Sulawesi, and Provinces of Maluku and North Maluku; and the 25 largest ethnic groups in the Provinces of Papua and West Papua. Table 4 also provides an extended list of ethnic groups in Indonesia, covering the ten, 15, or 25 largest groups in each province.

Population Dynamics in Ethnic Composition for Indonesia is discussed in Chapter 6. In chapter 7 the authors examine the religion and language of the fifteen largest ethnic groups. The 2010 population census is the first census collecting data on language and ethnicity at the same time.

This book is a result of a collaboration between Badan Pusat Statistik and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Dr. Riwanto Tirtosudahmo, Senior Researcher from Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) said that “Indonesia’s famous ethnic heterogeneity is no longer a social and cultural imagination, but has been statistically proven in this carefully and brilliantly crafted book”

Prof Leo Suryadinata, Nanyang Technology University, Singapore, wrote “This is the first detailed study of Indonesia’s demography and ethnicity based on the most-recent statistical information: the 2010 population census. This book is a follow-up to the major ISEAS publication entitled Indonesia’s Population: Ethnicity and Religion in a Changing Political Landscape (2003), but it is more up-to-date, much larger and more complex than the 2003 publication, as it covers more aspects and more ethnic groups. This is an essential reference book for those who want to study contemporary Indonesia.”

Prof Charles Hirschman, University of Washington, Seattle, USA, described “The post-New Order (since 1998) era has opened up Indonesian society to politics, new visions, and even to a greater understanding of the national motto “Unity through Diversity” with the collection of data on ethnic identities in the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Demography of Indonesia’s Ethnicity is the pioneering study of the complexity of measuring and interpreting ethnic identities from demographic data. The authors reduce the 1,331 raw ethnic categories to a more meaningful classification based on ethnographic research and geographical variation. Then they analyse change in ethnicity from 2000 to 2010 and the relationship between ethnicity and religion and language. This excellent book will be the foundation of all future research on ethnicity in Indonesia.”

Prof. David Henly, Leiden University, the Netherland, noted “Since the end of the Suharto era, democracy and freedom of speech have given ethnicity a new and direct political significant in Indonesia. At the same time, the censuses of 2000 and 2010 have made the country’s ethnic division statistically visible for the first time since the colonial period. Aris Ananta and his colleagues have done Indonesians, Indonesia-watchers, and the historians of the future an important service by summarizing and analysing, lucidly and with attention to detail, the new ethnic census data and the patterns and trends it reveals. This book will be useful to all those interested in the great and unique multicultural project that is Indonesia.”

For content of the book, readers are referred to website of the Publication Unit of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Readers can also get some free materials, including the New Classification of ethnic groups. Please visit here.

I hope you enjoy reading the book.

Best regards,


Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, , , ,

Three Mega-Demographic Trends in Indonesia

17 June 2015

Dear readers,

Attached is our power-point presented in an in-house seminar of the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, on 10 June 2015.

I hope it can be useful for you.

Best regards,


Three Mega Demographic Trends

Filed under: ageing, Demography, economy, English, ,


6 December 2014

Dear Readers,

Indonesia is a very large country, with at least 600 ethnic groups. Utilizing the availability of statistics on ethnicity from 2010 Indonesia Population Census and the “New Classification of Indonesia’s Ethnic Groups”, Evi Nurvidya Arifin, Aris Ananta, and Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utami attempt to uncover Indonesia’s ethnic diversity at the national, provincial, and district Levels. This is an ethno-demographic study, analysing ethnicity (in this case ethnic diversity) using statistics.

Uncovering Indonesia’s Ethnic Diversity is the powerpoint presented in an ISEAS public seminar, Singapore, 18 November 2014.

You may quote this powerpoint.

A short description of the seminar can be seen here.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, , , , , , , , , ,

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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