Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Demographic Dividend? No, It is Education Dividend

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

The word “demographic dividend” has been used frequently in Indonesia, especially when we examine relationship between population change and economic development. The main argument of the concept is that falling fertility has reduced young dependency ratio (“burden” from population under 14 years old), and rising number of “productive” working age population (15-64 years old). The concept further argues that the rising number is favourable for economic growth.

However,  Lutz (2015) showed that the concept of “demographic dividend” omitted an important intermediate variable — education. Declining fertility is not automatically transformed into rising productivity. To make the falling young dependency ratio favourable to economic growth, rising education, especially female education, should have increased accompanying the  decline in the young dependency ratio. Therefore, Lutz argued that we should talk about Education Dividend, rather than Demographic Dividend.

You may click here to read the article by Lutz on world population and human capital.

Further studies should be made on the current status of human capital of population aged 15-64 years old. How productive are they? Are population 15-24 already productive, or still in school? How is the health of the population? Is there any available employment opportunities for them?

If the status of human capital is low, the relative large number of population aged 15-64 can be disaster rather than a dividend. With low education, low productivity, and lack of employment opportunities, these young people can be exploited as a source of social and political instability.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, publications, statistics, , ,

A Critique to UN Population Projection

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

One of the most important ingredients in making population is the assumptions on what will happen to the fertility, mortality, and migration in the future.  To do so, some demographers analyze time series data (data in the past) and extrapolate it to the future. This is the way that the UN population projection was prepared, argued Abel, Barakat, KC, and Lutz (2016).

Yet, they argued that the future will be different from the past. They do not agree with the extrapolation method.   To make the assumptions, they collect expert opinion on what may happen in the future, especially with regards to the implementation of Sustainable Development Program. They insert “education” as the new variable in their population projection.

With their projection, the world population will reach its peak at around 2060 and will reach between 8.2 – 8.7 billion in 2010. This is much lower than the UN projection at between 9.5 billion and 13.0 billion in 2010. Projected increase in education, and the resulting decrease in fertility and mortality, will make the world population reaching its peak much earlier.

This paper is important for those who are preparing population projection as well as those who try to use results of population projection. Please click here.

Enjoy reading the article.

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, ,

Third Demographic Transition: Call for Papers

24 April 2017


Population Review is seeking quantitative research papers on the Third Demographic Transition (TDT). As originally discussed by Professor David Coleman in 2006, the TDT is underpinned by the assumption that population mobility, particularly migration, alters the ethnic/race composition of a population in developed countries, resulting in positive and negative socioeconomic consequences.  In 2016, Professor Aris Ananta found that a similar pattern materialized in developing countries (e.g. Indonesia).


This call for papers seeks high-quality contributions on the TDT as it applies to both developed and developing countries. Papers may include a topic within a specific country, a collection of countries or an entire geographical region. Papers that survive the peer-review process will be compiled into a Special Collection, which will be accessible online at

For more detailed information, please read TDT. Call for Papers

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, internal migration, international migration, migration, statistics

Perempuan dan Pasar Kerja

“Memaksakan Perempuan Masuk Pasar Kerja bisa jadi tidak benar. Yang penting tidak ada hambatan perempuan masuk kerja. Menghargai apa pun pilihan perempuan juga bagian dari pembangunan”  Evi Nurvidya Arifin (Kompas, 31 Maret 2017). Selengkapnya, silakan baca di sini.

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Demography, economy, ,

Chinese Indonesians: How Many,Who and Where

Just Published on line

Evi Nuvidya Arifin, M. Sairi Hasbullah, and Agus Pramono. “Chinese Indonesians: How Many and Where”, Asian Ethnicity, 2016, on-line.

This paper provides new statistics to the debate on percentage of Chinese Indonesians, using the latest 100% data set of the 2010 population census. It reveals that the statistics is closer to the low side of the debate, less than 2.0%, rather than the high side of 3.0% and more. Ethnicity is here self-defined by the respondents. With 1.2%, the Chinese Indonesians ranked as the 15th largest group of more than 600 ethnic groups. This paper also produces statistics at the district level, the first ever statistics on Chinese Indonesians. It finds that some provinces and districts have large percentages of Chinese Indonesians, but the respective total population are relatively small to the total Indonesia’s population. Majority of provinces and districts (25 out of 33 provinces and 415 out of 497 districts) have lower percentage of Chinese than the national figure.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, Ethnicity, Uncategorized,

Merokoklah, Demi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

Pembaca yang budiman,

Merokoklah terus. Sakit dan sakitan tidak apa apa. Anda akan membantu pertumbuhan ekonomi. Demi kesejahteraan industri rokok kita diminta terus merokok. Jangan risaukan sakit dan sakit sakitan, anda pahlawan ekonomi.

Lucu ya? Semoga anda tidak mau menjadi pahlawan ekonomi seperti ini. Kasihanilah diri anda sendiri, pasangan anda, keluarga anda, dan masyarakat Indonesia.

Yuk, kita semua mengikuti gaya hidup sehat. Demi kesejahteraan kita semua. Selain itu, ada bonusnya. Kalau kita sehat, ekonomi akan tumbuh dengan berkelanjutan. Kalau kita sakit sakitan,  kita akan mengalami bencana demografi. Produktifitas turun drastis dan ekonomi juga akan berantakan.

Salam hidup sehat.











Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Demography, economy, Uncategorized, , ,

Statistics on Ethnicity in the Land of Papua, Indonesia

11 July 2016

Dear readers,

This is a just published paper on ethnicity in Indonesia, Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 27 June 2016.  doi: 10.1002/app5.143.




This paper aims to quantitatively uncover ethnic diversity in multi-ethnic Land of Papua, an Indonesian region with a large inflow of migration and rising ethno-based movement, consisting of the Provinces of Papua and West Papua. It produces statistics on ethnic diversity in the Land of Papua, utilizing the tabulation provided by Statistics-Indonesia based on the raw, 100 per cent, data set of the 2010 population census. It uses three measurements of ethnic diversity. First is ethnic fractionalization index, showing the degree of ethnic heterogeneity. Second is ethnic polarization index, examining the existence of few relatively large ethnic groups of almost the samesizes.Third is a comparison of percentages between migrant and Papuan groups. It finds that the Land of Papua is ethnically very heterogeneous, but not polarized. West Papua is more heterogeneous, but Papua is more polarized. However, seen from a dichotomy between migrants and Papuans, West Papua is very polarized. In-migration may have increased the probability of having ethnic conflicts in the region but does not change the probability of the intensity of the conflicts. Therefore, ethnic conflicts should be anticipated whenever making programmes that involve in-migrants or entice people to migrate into the Land of Papua.


Dowload here for the full paper of Statistics on Ethnicity in the Land of Papua.

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnic Diversity, Indonesia, Statistics, , , ,

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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