Percikan pikiran seorang ekonom.

Demographic Dividend? No, It is Education Dividend

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

The word “demographic dividend” has been used frequently in Indonesia, especially when we examine relationship between population change and economic development. The main argument of the concept is that falling fertility has reduced young dependency ratio (“burden” from population under 14 years old), and rising number of “productive” working age population (15-64 years old). The concept further argues that the rising number is favourable for economic growth.

However,  Lutz (2015) showed that the concept of “demographic dividend” omitted an important intermediate variable — education. Declining fertility is not automatically transformed into rising productivity. To make the falling young dependency ratio favourable to economic growth, rising education, especially female education, should have increased accompanying the  decline in the young dependency ratio. Therefore, Lutz argued that we should talk about Education Dividend, rather than Demographic Dividend.

You may click here to read the article by Lutz on world population and human capital.

Further studies should be made on the current status of human capital of population aged 15-64 years old. How productive are they? Are population 15-24 already productive, or still in school? How is the health of the population? Is there any available employment opportunities for them?

If the status of human capital is low, the relative large number of population aged 15-64 can be disaster rather than a dividend. With low education, low productivity, and lack of employment opportunities, these young people can be exploited as a source of social and political instability.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, publications, statistics, , ,

A Critique to UN Population Projection

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

One of the most important ingredients in making population is the assumptions on what will happen to the fertility, mortality, and migration in the future.  To do so, some demographers analyze time series data (data in the past) and extrapolate it to the future. This is the way that the UN population projection was prepared, argued Abel, Barakat, KC, and Lutz (2016).

Yet, they argued that the future will be different from the past. They do not agree with the extrapolation method.   To make the assumptions, they collect expert opinion on what may happen in the future, especially with regards to the implementation of Sustainable Development Program. They insert “education” as the new variable in their population projection.

With their projection, the world population will reach its peak at around 2060 and will reach between 8.2 – 8.7 billion in 2010. This is much lower than the UN projection at between 9.5 billion and 13.0 billion in 2010. Projected increase in education, and the resulting decrease in fertility and mortality, will make the world population reaching its peak much earlier.

This paper is important for those who are preparing population projection as well as those who try to use results of population projection. Please click here.

Enjoy reading the article.

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, ,

Third Demographic Transition: Call for Papers

24 April 2017


Population Review is seeking quantitative research papers on the Third Demographic Transition (TDT). As originally discussed by Professor David Coleman in 2006, the TDT is underpinned by the assumption that population mobility, particularly migration, alters the ethnic/race composition of a population in developed countries, resulting in positive and negative socioeconomic consequences.  In 2016, Professor Aris Ananta found that a similar pattern materialized in developing countries (e.g. Indonesia).


This call for papers seeks high-quality contributions on the TDT as it applies to both developed and developing countries. Papers may include a topic within a specific country, a collection of countries or an entire geographical region. Papers that survive the peer-review process will be compiled into a Special Collection, which will be accessible online at

For more detailed information, please read TDT. Call for Papers

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, internal migration, international migration, migration, statistics


14 April 2017

Untuk pembaca yang beragama Kristen/ Katolik, kami ucapkan Selamat Merayakan Paskah. Semoga Paskah ini menyumbang pada perdamaian dan kasih sayang untuk semua mahluk di dunia, kini dan masa mendatang.

Filed under: Uncategorized

Perempuan dan Pasar Kerja

“Memaksakan Perempuan Masuk Pasar Kerja bisa jadi tidak benar. Yang penting tidak ada hambatan perempuan masuk kerja. Menghargai apa pun pilihan perempuan juga bagian dari pembangunan”  Evi Nurvidya Arifin (Kompas, 31 Maret 2017). Selengkapnya, silakan baca di sini.

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Demography, economy, ,

Why Do We Study Islamic Economic Development?

Aris Ananta

10 April 2017

Islamic economics has been emerging very fast in the last four decades. However, the progress is still limited to the financial sector, the so-called Islamic Finance. There has been a great increase in demand for Islamic finance, even among conventional financial institutions. Islamic finance and banking institution have flourished, but social and economic features of Islamic moral economy have not progressed as well. The real (“production”) sector has not been given sufficient attention in the literature and performance of Islamic economics. (SASE, 2017)

Indeed, Islamic economics is more than the prohibition of interest and “profit-and-loss-sharing”. Islamic economics  provides more attention to the real sector and asset based economy, rather than on debt and speculation. Islamic economics focuses on people-centred and sustainable development. (SASE, 2017)

The purpose of this short note is to show that Islamic economic development is concerned with the economic and social features of the Islamic moral economy. In particular, it is an economic development based on Maqasid Al-Shariah. The performance of economic development is Islamic when its performance is in accordance with Maqasid al-Shariah.

Read more inWhyDoWeStudyIslamicEconomicDevelopment

Filed under: economy, English, ,

Apinya Para Jago

Aris Ananta, 22 Januari 2017

Imlek (Chinese New Year) segera tiba. Tahun akan berganti dengan Tahun Ayam Jago.

Di tahun ini akan muncul para “Jago”, yang membusungkan dada, memamerkan kehebatan mereka.

Semoga tahun ini berisi para Jago yang penuh kasih-sayang, mudah memaafkan. Para Jago yang membawa rasa nyaman, bukan mengobarkan kemarahan dan kebencian. Para Jago yang membusungkan dada bahwa mereka toleran, tidak gampang marah. Para Jago yang bersaing dalam menciptakan kedamaian di antara semua manusia, semua mahluk hidup dan lingkungan mereka.

Tahun yang segera datang adalah juga Tahun Ayam Jago yang bersifat api. Semoga para Jago membawa api saling memaafkan, api pencerahan jiwa, api kedamaian, api kasih sayang, api persaudaraan, api kebersamaan, api keragaman. Para Jago yang anti korupsi dalam perbuatan sehari hari, yang bekerja keras dengan jujur, yang menjaga lingkungan mereka, yang selalu mengasihi siapa saja.

Kita semua adalah para Jago, tidak pandang usia, jenis kelamin, pendidikan, agama, suku bangsa dan berbagai latar belakang kita.

Selamat Imlek.

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Ethnicity

This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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