Mletiko!

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Mletiko

“mletiko” comes from the verb “mletik”, a Javanese word that means something close to “sparkle”. Mletik, however, is a very brief spark just like when we ignite a match. If it is not caught immediately, it will die.

Mletiko then means to mletik – to spark ideas. I hope this blog can mletik everybody who reads it. Yet, readers must be cautioned. To mletik will not necessarily make us happy. When we mletik, we catch fire and with this light we may see the surrounding a little better. However, a better understanding of our surrounding may make us frustrated and angry. It really depends on how we perceive pe-mletik-an.

A good English synonym for pemletikan is enlightenment. I would say, however, that enlightenment is deeper than pemletikan. Enlightenment is more spiritual, but here, in this blog, it is simply an intellectual process.

I love economic analyses, tools to choose whenever we have scarcity. The issues are not necessarily related to “money”. I may cover “cultural” and “political” issues. I am also a demographer, working with statistics on population dynamics as well as its wide social, economic, and political determinants and implications. Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, is my main research interest.

Selamat Mletik, Happy Mletik.

Aris Ananta (arisananta@gmail.com)

Filed under: Uncategorized,

Ageing. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia

5 July 2017

 

Just published

Dear Readers,

 

You may be interested in our latest publication.

 

Evi Nurvidya Arifin, Aris Anana, and Tri Budi Rahardjo. “Population Ageing in Indonesia”. In Ageing. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Cambodia. Demographic Transition, Policy and Programmatic Responses. Edited by Anthony Abeykoon, Nora Murat, Gessen Rocas and Aurelio Carmin Naraval.  Selangor, Malaysia: International Council on Management of Population Programme (ICOMP), 2017.

Please click here for the complete book. You will find not only our chapter, but also chapters on Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia.

Filed under: ageing, Demography, English, Large Population, migration

Selamat Idul Fitri

 

Untuk para pembaca yang beragama Islam, saya ucapkan Selamat Idul Fitri.

Mohon Maaf Lahir dan Batin.

 

Semoga bulan puasa dan Hari Idul Fitri ini membawa rasa kasih sayang dan saling memaafkan di antara kita semua, dan segala isi dunia.

 

Salam,

Aris Ananta

 

Filed under: Uncategorized

Demographic Dividend? No, It is Education Dividend

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

The word “demographic dividend” has been used frequently in Indonesia, especially when we examine relationship between population change and economic development. The main argument of the concept is that falling fertility has reduced young dependency ratio (“burden” from population under 14 years old), and rising number of “productive” working age population (15-64 years old). The concept further argues that the rising number is favourable for economic growth.

However,  Lutz (2015) showed that the concept of “demographic dividend” omitted an important intermediate variable — education. Declining fertility is not automatically transformed into rising productivity. To make the falling young dependency ratio favourable to economic growth, rising education, especially female education, should have increased accompanying the  decline in the young dependency ratio. Therefore, Lutz argued that we should talk about Education Dividend, rather than Demographic Dividend.

You may click here to read the article by Lutz on world population and human capital.

Further studies should be made on the current status of human capital of population aged 15-64 years old. How productive are they? Are population 15-24 already productive, or still in school? How is the health of the population? Is there any available employment opportunities for them?

If the status of human capital is low, the relative large number of population aged 15-64 can be disaster rather than a dividend. With low education, low productivity, and lack of employment opportunities, these young people can be exploited as a source of social and political instability.

Best regards,

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, publications, statistics, , ,

A Critique to UN Population Projection

24 May 2017

Dear readers,

One of the most important ingredients in making population is the assumptions on what will happen to the fertility, mortality, and migration in the future.  To do so, some demographers analyze time series data (data in the past) and extrapolate it to the future. This is the way that the UN population projection was prepared, argued Abel, Barakat, KC, and Lutz (2016).

Yet, they argued that the future will be different from the past. They do not agree with the extrapolation method.   To make the assumptions, they collect expert opinion on what may happen in the future, especially with regards to the implementation of Sustainable Development Program. They insert “education” as the new variable in their population projection.

With their projection, the world population will reach its peak at around 2060 and will reach between 8.2 – 8.7 billion in 2010. This is much lower than the UN projection at between 9.5 billion and 13.0 billion in 2010. Projected increase in education, and the resulting decrease in fertility and mortality, will make the world population reaching its peak much earlier.

This paper is important for those who are preparing population projection as well as those who try to use results of population projection. Please click here.

Enjoy reading the article.

Aris Ananta

Filed under: Demography, English, statistics, ,

Third Demographic Transition: Call for Papers

24 April 2017

CALL FOR PAPERS

Population Review is seeking quantitative research papers on the Third Demographic Transition (TDT). As originally discussed by Professor David Coleman in 2006, the TDT is underpinned by the assumption that population mobility, particularly migration, alters the ethnic/race composition of a population in developed countries, resulting in positive and negative socioeconomic consequences.  In 2016, Professor Aris Ananta found that a similar pattern materialized in developing countries (e.g. Indonesia).

 

This call for papers seeks high-quality contributions on the TDT as it applies to both developed and developing countries. Papers may include a topic within a specific country, a collection of countries or an entire geographical region. Papers that survive the peer-review process will be compiled into a Special Collection, which will be accessible online at www.populationreview.com.

For more detailed information, please read TDT. Call for Papers

Filed under: Demography, English, Ethnicity, internal migration, international migration, migration, statistics

SELAMAT PASKAH

14 April 2017

Untuk pembaca yang beragama Kristen/ Katolik, kami ucapkan Selamat Merayakan Paskah. Semoga Paskah ini menyumbang pada perdamaian dan kasih sayang untuk semua mahluk di dunia, kini dan masa mendatang.

Filed under: Uncategorized

Perempuan dan Pasar Kerja

“Memaksakan Perempuan Masuk Pasar Kerja bisa jadi tidak benar. Yang penting tidak ada hambatan perempuan masuk kerja. Menghargai apa pun pilihan perempuan juga bagian dari pembangunan”  Evi Nurvidya Arifin (Kompas, 31 Maret 2017). Selengkapnya, silakan baca di sini.

Filed under: Bahasa Indonesia, Demography, economy, ,



This site contains the writings of Aris Ananta & Evi Nurvidya Arifin. Click here to find out more about them.

We are researchers in the field of demography, social and economic statistics, and economics, focusing on Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Click here to find out more about OUR PUBLICATION .<br

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